The fight goes on ...

112 days and counting.

Having against all odds and expectations forced Russia to abandon its efforts to take Kiev, repulsed the assault on Kharkiv and hold the line in the southern regions Ukraine appears to have forced Putin to reduce his ambitions, effectively achieving a strategic victory in preserving its nationhood and avoiding the spread of conflict beyond its borders.

But it is now clear that unless there are major changes in the leadership of Russia this conflict will run on for many more months as Russia focuses its efforts on the "liberation" of Donetsk and Luhansk and its aim of securing the Black Sea, reverting to the use of massed artillery and tactics from bygone times to lay waste to cities and villages and grind through Ukrainian defences. At the operational level of the conflict it has to be asked if the balance has swung to Russia’s favour as they focus their available resources and assaults, the weather changes to favour the attacker and Ukrainian casualties and equipment loses mount?

The cost of the war to both Ukraine and Russia has been huge and continues to grow as Russia prosecutes its war without regard for civilian casualties or the future of the regions it "liberates" once the fighting stops, as at some stage it must.

The continued ability of Ukraine to maintain the fight seems to hinge on two factors;

• The will of the Ukrainian people to continue and prosecute the fight and bear the losses suffered doing so and,

• The will of the Western States to remain fully engaged and provide the arms and financial support necessary to enable that will to be expressed

It is only with the full commitment and escalating fiscal support and delivery of necessary arms from its Western supporters that the Ukrainian forces can continue to frustrate and degrade the Russian forces and create the environment necessary for the fighting to be ended.

Key to the above is the ability of the West to remain fully united and engaged as time passes and the conflict slips down the news agenda and domestic public interest and engagement slips as each counties own domestic worries around inflation, energy prices and other internal matters start to take centre stage in their political agenders.

This is a fight that if not from solidarity with the Ukrainian people then out of pure self interest the West cannot allow be lost.

NATO States must maintain their commitment to the Ukrainian people and deliver – not promise - the long range arms and munitions that Ukraine needs to maintain their resistance, overcome Russia's numerical advantage in force of arms and deny Putin and his cabal the ability to claim victory.

EU States must remain united in their repudiation of Putin's actions and advance with all speed towards a total removal of its member States dependency on Russian hydrocarbons – especially Germany's consumption of Russian natural gas - a dependency that is perversely funding Putin's war

The United Nations must find its voice and demonstrate both the will and ability to sanction Russia for its actions in a meaningful way and engineer the release of Ukrainian grain to avert a wider food emergancy ; or accept that its value has proven hollow and understand the dangers such a finding carry.

Ukraine is paying a terrible price in blood and treasure both civilian, military and economic. If they lose this fight and Putin is able to project a "victory" and gain kudos with his domestic audience and wider supporters and watchers every country in Europe will pay a like and pro-rata price in the same commodities. A price none can afford and few can envisage.

This is now a war with no quick or happy ending - we must maintain our full support of Ukraine and political intelegence to ensure a "Putin victory" and consiquent spread of his ambition to rebuild greater Russia does not become a reality that has to be faced down.