Ukraine - No War Today

"If his forces are united, separate them"

So, the intelligence agencies were wrong – today, 16th February 2022 will not be written into history as the day Russian invaded Ukraine.

We can all thank our Gods of choice for this but was it ever truly likely?

Was Putin every seriously intending a full scale invasion?, or is he simply a good student of the political arts who has shown his counterparts in the West to be hopelessly over matched in their application, with NATO divided and the threat of a united response devoid of credibility. A situation underscored by the misspeak and dither of possibly the least able US administration in history. One led by a President who is walking proof of Mark Twain’s quote; “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt”.

Yes, I remember Trump. But he was an egotist and clown not a fool; and as such had the inestimable advantage of genuine unpredictability

Russia has not forgotten the rules of the Great Game of Empire and the need to play long; whilst the Western Powers now live and act in memory of the last opinion poll, focus group report, television news broadcast, tweet or social media plie on…

The Russian position is basically a constant - by coincidence of date on the 16th February 1951 a leader by the name of Joseph Stalin issued a statement when talking of a conflict of his time (Korea) that inverted accepted truths:- stating "that “although a world war was not inevitable “at the present time,” “warmongers” in the West might trigger such a conflict” .

Seventy One years later to the day, when spoken by the current Russian leadership which of these word, and the intentions behind their utterance, have changed?

And what of China?

The choreographed actions and statements of Putin and the Chinese Premier Xi at the opening of the Winter Olympics show a shared direction of travel and bode badly for western policy makers and those watching from Taipei.

If Russian can threaten Ukraine, which has four land borders with NATO Member States, without a united response presenting from the western alliance how much easier is it for China to lever it’s position on Taiwan which is only 100 miles from its Mainland – but 1,350 from its nearest supportive neighbour, Japan , 5,000 from European supporters and 8,000 from Washington?

Further, with Russia holding the tap to the gas supply of much of Europe, by example: 94% in Finland, 49% in Germany, 46% in Italy, 40% in Poland, 24% in France (Statista) and China the keys to the West’s consumer production capacity (Statista); do they have any need to risk a resort to actual kinetic warfare?

I started with a quote of Sun Taz, I will end with another:-

“Those skilled at making the enemy move do so by creating a situation to which he must conform; they entice him with something he is certain to take, and with lures of ostensible profit they await him in strength.”