652 Days...

It is 540 days since I touched on Ukraine. In that time against all initial expectations Ukraine has fought Russia to an effective territorial stop and in doing so has suffered huge losses in human treasure and physical infrastructure that it will take many years and many, many billions of Pounds, Euros and most likely of all US Dollars to restore.

But as the conflict now moves to a further winter of misery, death and destruction are we losing interest? Has the conflict extended beyond the attention span of our leaders and media? Has the conflict in Gaza diverted attention?

I fear the answers are; Yes, Yes and, Yes.

There is an uncomfortable feeling in the air that the political and social agenda is moving on – America is moving towards its Presidential election cycle with all that delivers in terms of the Trump litigation circus, the Democrat's "Biden bind" and the pork belly trading of congress as Republicans link Ukrainian aid to US border security and their opponents and factions take on an increasingly domestic focus. Gaza has become the focus of the Media and public protest, Germany and the EU are rowing back on aid undertakings and starting to realise what their pronouncements on Ukraine’s potential for EU membership actually means for their own funding and internal agricultural markets.

Is America about to make a balance sheet judgement that the conflict has served its purpose – that for what seems to be a single digit percentage of its defence budget the proxy of Ukraine's fight for its national identity and sovereignty has effectively inflicted a “mission kill” on Russia’s ability to conduct large scale conventional military action. Is that a sufficient strategic win?

Will Ukraine now be forced to a compromise settlement to “end the suffering”?

If so, then once again our leaders have taken the short view and are again demonstrating a lack of understanding of the aims of Putin and the will of Russia to endure.  We are not facing a regime that thinks or acts as we do and in this, we face a threat to our own way of life that the Ukrainians are paying the price to withstand. Our leaders cannot maintain the current “just enough” policy. It offers only loss and ultimately effective defeat to Ukraine, a bankable success to Putin and, victory to China who sit quietly watching and weighing its options - not least on Taiwan .

To repeat my earlier comment; Ukraine is paying a terrible price in blood and treasure both civilian, military, and economic. If they lose this fight and Putin is able to project a "victory" and gain kudos with his domestic audience and wider supporters and watchers every country in Europe will pay a like and pro-rata price in the same commodities. A price none can afford, and few can envisage.

We must maintain our full support of Ukraine and our leaders the political intelligence to ensure a "Putin victory" and consequent spread of his ambition to rebuild greater Russia does not become a reality that has to be faced down at a future date and still higher cost.

This is not a fight we can walk away from – remember Chamberlain's 1938 statement on Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland?

“In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers. How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing.”

We all know what happened next, how close to us that far away country proved to be and the price the “free” world paid for its non-action when challenged by totalitarian states focused on taking what that world held. If we walk away from Ukraine now, self-satisfied, the chances of history repeating multiply.

By their actions it is clear those in power within Russian do not believe the time for peace is now and we must understand the war in Ukraine is not a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing.

 If not from moral fortitude, then for self-interest we must not step away from Ukraine or start to convince ourselves it’s “job done”

It is not.